房地產廣告數量與房價指數之關聯性分析The Lead-lag Relationship between Real Estate Advertisement and House Pricing Index

摘要

本研究以台灣所發行之天下雜誌、商業周刊及今周刊三大雜誌所刊登之房地產相關廣告為研究對象，研究期間為2004年到2016年，共計13年期間。利用內容分析法統計雜誌中有關房地產廣告的數量，以了解研究期間房地產開發商的廣告行為。本文進一步利用向量自我迴歸模型VAR (Vector Autoregression)，分析國泰建設所編製之房價指數與雜誌房地產廣告之關聯性。本研究發現當廣告數量變動二季至三季之後，國泰房價指數也會有顯著的正向變動，因此房地產廣告相對於房價指數有領先變動現象。此實證結果將可提供房地產投資者或自住者另一個觀察房地產投資趨勢的方法。

Abstract

This study used the real estate advertisements in three major Taiwanese magazines, ie. CommonWealth magazine, Business Weekly and Business Today, as the study samples and the Cathay House Pricing Index as the tool for analysis. The study period is 2004-2016. Content analysis was used to count the amount of real estate advertisement, and VAR model was employed to examine the lead-lag relationship between two house-related variables of advertisement and Cathay House Pricing Index. The empirical results show that, after the amount of house advertisement changed for two to three quarters, the Cathay House Pricing Index would change accordingly with a positive significance. This evidence shows that the amount of advertisement leads Cathay House Pricing Index. This study offers an alternative method to observe the trend of real estate investment to the investors or owners.