摘要
銀行有效地運用從各種投資項目獲得的利潤是很重要的，資金的誤用可能造成銀行破產，影響投資者、顧客和員工，進而干擾經濟秩序。銀行破產也會波及別的產業和造成更廣範圍的財務問題。因此，銀行必須評估各自的作業風險和建立早期預警系統。本研究收集2002至2012年772家跨國銀行資料〈排除控股公司〉，採用邏輯模型去分析重要的變數。結果顯示資本比率、利息收入對利息費用、非利息收入對非利息費用、權益周轉率、貸款損失條款和財務困難呈負相關。另外，貸款比率、逾期放款率、固定資產和財務困難呈正相關。本研究的邏輯模型對預測G8銀行財務困難，效果最佳。
關鍵詞：銀行失敗、經濟合作發展組織、北美自由貿易協定、東南亞國協、歐盟
Abstract
Banks efficiently manage the capital that they obtain from profit in various investments. The mismanagement of capital causes collapse, which negatively affects investors, customers, and employees, and disrupts the economic order. This disruption can affect other industries and trigger large-scale financial distress. Therefore, banks must evaluate their operational risks and develop early warning systems. In the current study, data from 772 international banks (excluding holding companies) from 2002–2012 was analyzed, and a logistic model was applied to analyze critical factors. The results showed that capital ratios, interest income to interest expenses, non-interest income to non-interest expenses, return of equity, provisions for loan losses have significantly negative correlations with financial distress. In addition, loan ratios, non-performing loans, and fixed assets all have a significant positive correlation to financial distress. However, the accuracy of the logistic model for G8 banks provides the best prediction trends regarding financial distress.
Keywords: Bank Failure, OECD, NAFTA, ASEAN, EU